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February 2015




Global trade: International freight transport to quadruple by 2050

In the face of shifting global trade patterns, international freight transport volumes will grow more than fourfold (factor 4.3) by 2050. Average transport distance across all modes will increase 12%.

As a result, CO2 emissions from freight transport will grow by 290% by 2050. Freight will replace passenger traffic as main source of CO2 emissions from surface transport.

The North Pacific route will surpass the North Atlantic as the world's most busy trading corridor in terms of freight volume (in tonne-km), growing 100 percentage points faster than the North Atlantic. The Indian Ocean corridor will see large growth, with freight volume quadrupling.

Intra-African (+715%) and intra-Asian (+403%) freight volumes will see particularly strong growth to 2050. Road transport will dominate here due to lack of other modes.

The share of domestic transport of international freight flows, identified here for the first time, accounts for 10% of trade-related international freight, but 30% of CO2 emissions. This is important: domestic transport is shaped by national policies, less by international agreements.

These are some of the key findings of the ITF Transport Outlook 2015, presented on 27 January 2015 at the OECD headquarters in Paris, France.

A new award-winning modelling tool used for developing scenarios in the Transport Outlook, the ITF International Freight Model, was presented to members of the ITF Corporate Partnership Board (CPB) and International Organisations in Paris on 11 February.

Results from the Indian Urban Transport Outlook module were presented by ITF during the Delhi Sustainable Development Summit held in India on 5-7 February.

Go to the ITF Transport Outlook 2015

Go to video presentation of the ITF International Freight Model
 


 
 
 
 
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International Organisations gear up for 2015 Summit
Representatives from 30 international transport stakeholder organisations met at OECD headquarters in Paris on 12 February for the ITF's Annual Consultation Day with International Organisations. This annual process is an important component of the preparations for the 2015 Summit on "Transport, Trade and Tourism". The 2015 Summit will take place from 27-29 May in Leipzig, Germany, under the Presidency of New Zealand.

The consultation provided a concerted opportunity for stakeholders to provide input for the preparation of Summit sessions. Four break-out sessions focused on specific aspects regarding transport's role in facilitating global trade and international tourism, with a view to aligning an agenda that stakeholders want to bring to ministers in May.

The consultation also provided an opportunity for partner organisations and the ITF secretariat to discuss an initial scoping of the 2016 Summit theme "Green and Inclusive Transport".

Go to video of the Consultation Day

Go to more information on the Summit programme
 
 
 
 
 
 
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Mobility data in practice: fuelling the Big Data debate
Big Data as a driver for better evidence-based policy making was the subject of an  OECD workshop "Big Data in Practice" held in Paris on 20 January. ITF's ongoing Corporate Partnership Board work on mobility data was presented by Sharon Masterson, Manager Corporate Partnership Board and Private Sector. Major institutions in the big data debate were represented including the UN Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE), the Italian National Institute of Statistics (Istat), and Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union, as well as private sector experts.

Go to the video Mobility Data: Changes and Opportunities
 
 
 
 
 
 
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New ITF Working Group on air transport liberalisation
The ITF Working Group on the Liberalisation of Air Transport met for the first time on February 3-4 in Paris to discuss policy issues related to aviation's economic regulation. The Working Group brings together international aviation experts and negotiators from a number of ITF countries including Canada, Finland, France, Germany, New Zealand and USA, as well as the International Air Transport Association (IATA), the World Trade Organisation (WTO), and the World Travel and Tourism Council (WTTC). The meeting was chaired by the International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO). The discussion will feed into the research report to be published later this year on aviation liberalisation and will support discussion between ministers at the 2015 Summit. As part of its ongoing work in this area, ITF has published the following new Discussion Papers:

- What Do We Mean by a Level Playing Field in International Aviation?
Go to the Discussion Paper (pdf)

- EU Air Transport Liberalisation. Process, impacts and future considerations
Go to the Discussion Paper (pdf)

- Dominant Carrier Performance and International Liberalisation: The case of North East Asia
Go to the Discussion Paper (pdf)

- Assessing the Prospects for an E.U.-ASEAN Air Transport Agreement
Go to the Discussion Paper (pdf)

Photo: a.koto | Flickr cc
 
 
 
 
 
 
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Jagdish Bhagwati to deliver 2015 Summit keynote
Global trade expert, Professor of Economics and Law at Colombia University, USA, and Senior Fellow in International Economics at the Council on Foreign Relations, Jagdish Bhagwati will deliver the Summit 2015 keynote address at the opening plenary session on "Transport, Trade and Tourism: Mobility for a connected world" on 27 May 2015 in Leipzig, Germany.

The full Summit programme is now available online.

Go to information on 2015 Summit
 
 
 













 

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Forum Activities
Urban mobility scenarios for Indian cities developed as part of the ITF Transport Outlook 2015 were presented by ITF Head of Research Stephen Perkins at the Delhi Sustainable Development Summit in India on 5-7 February.
Pictured (l-r): Stephen Perkins, ITF Head of Research, Prodipto Ghosh, Director, Earth Science and Climate Change Division, TERI (The Energy and Resources Institute)


ITF Secretary-General José Viegas met with leaders including the new European Commissioner for Transport Violeta Bulc, the Director General of the European Commission's Directorate for Mobility and Transport (DG-Move) João Machado, and Alain Flausch, Secretary General of the International Association of Public Transport (UITP) on 21-22 January in Brussels, Belgium.

ITF was represented at the first EU Contact Group on Innovation in Ports by ITF ports and shipping expert Olaf Merk in Brussels on 22 January. The impact of mega-ships was discussed in a meeting with the sector association of private port terminals in Europe, Feports. Mr Merk also visited the Port of Rotterdam, Netherlands to discuss co-operation with ITF and met with the Piraeus Port Authority and MedCruise (an association of Mediterranean cruise ports) in Piraeus, Greece on 5-6 February. A presentation on cruise ship emissions was delivered by Mr Merk at the Cruise Seminar of the American Association of Port Authorities (AAPA) in Fort Lauderdale, USA on 11 February.

Olaf Merk is author of a chapter on shipping emissions in Southeast Asia ports in a new book on "Port, Maritime and Hinterland Development in Southeast Asia". 
Go to the publication

Merk is also co-author of the new ITF Discussion Paper on "The Governance and Regulation of Ports. The Case of Italy".
Go to the publication (pdf)

Sessions on "Urban Transport and Climate Change" and "Financing and Optimising Benefits from Low Carbon Urban Transport" were moderated by Mary Crass, ITF's Head of Policy and Summit Preparation and Member of the CODATU International Steering Committee at the CODATU XVI Conference on 2-5 February in Istanbul, Turkey. Organising Committee member Dilay Celebi of ITF worked on conference programme planning. CODATU, Co-operation for Urban Mobility in the Developing World, was created in 1980 to promote international exchange on sustainable urban mobility in developing countries.

Procedures on implementation of the Quality Charter for international road haulage operations under the ECMT Multilateral Quota which will further strengthen the system's quality standards, as well as decisions on the mid-term development of the quota, were agreed at a meeting of the Group on Road Transport iin Paris on 5-6 February. The Group will meet with a view to adopting the Quality Charter on 16-17 March.

Social acceptance of larger unmanned cargo aircraft and co-operation between safety regulators and innovators was the focus of a presentation at the Unmanned Cargo Aircraft 2015 Conference by ITF's aviation transport expert Alain Lumbroso in The Hague, Netherlands on 5 February. 

Research findings on Slovenia's national motorway programme were presented by economist Dejan Makovsek at the conference "Large infrastructure projects in Slovenia - from failures to sustainable investments" in Ljubljana, Slovenia on 6 February.

ITF is very pleased to welcome new staff member Mireille Benicke who joins ITF from the OECD's Development Centre. Mireille will be working with the Summit and Transport Policy team on speaker preparation.
 
 
 
 





 
 
 

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ITF in the Media
Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung | 28 January
Weltweiter Gütertransport gefährdet Klimaziele

Reuters France | 27 January
Le fret aérien affichera la plus forte croissance d'ici 2050-FIT

Lloyd's List | 25 January
New transport report highlights growth in trade distances, CO2 emissions and ship sizes
(requires subscription)

World Maritime News | 6 February
Monitoring Ships' Energy Performance Step in Right Direction

Transport Weekly | 9 February
North Pacific will surpass north Atlantic in cargo, predicts OECD report

Lloyd's Loading List | 30 January
Freight to quadruple by 2050, predicts OECD report

Lloyd's List | 3 February
Industry viewpoint: the six challenges facing the next head of the IMO

Journal of Commerce | 18 February
Shanghai port steams ahead as China's economy slows
(requires subscription)
 
 

 
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Valuing Convenience in Public Transport
Roundtable Report |
May 2014

The Economics of Investment in High-Speed Rail
Roundtable Report | January 2015

Major Transport Infrastructure Projects and Economic Development
Roundtable Report | January 2015


ITF Transport Outlook 2015
Research Report | January 2015


The Regulatory Asset Base Model and the Project Finance Model: A comparative analysis
Discussion Paper |
January 2015

What Do We Mean by a Level Playing Field in International Aviation?
Discussion Paper |
February 2015

EU Air Transport Liberalisation. Process, impacts and future considerations
Discussion Paper |
January 2015

Dominant Carrier Performance and International Liberalisation: The case of North East Asia
Discussion Paper |
January 2015

Assessing the Prospects for an E.U.-ASEAN Air Transport Agreement
Discussion Paper |
January 2015

The Governance and Regulation of Ports. The Case of Italy
Discussion Paper |
January 2015


Rail Efficiency: Cost Research and Its Implications for Policy
Discussion Paper |
December 2014

Public Private Partnerships for Transport Infrastructure. Renegotiations, How to Approach them and Economic Outcomes. Roundtable Summary and Conclusions
Discussion Paper |
February 2015


Les indicateurs d'efficience du transport ferroviaire en France
Discussion Paper |
December 2014

What is Rail Efficiency and How Can It Be Changed?
Discussion Paper |
December 2014

The Renegotiation of PPP Contracts: An Overview of its Recent Evolution in Latin America
Discussion Paper |
November 2014


Renegotiations in Public-Private Partnerships: Theory and Evidence
Discussion Paper |
November 2014


Renegotiation of Transportation Public-Private Partnerships: The US Experience
Discussion Paper |
December 2014

Inférence causale pour l'évaluation ex post des interventions dans les transports
Discussion Paper |
December 2014

Air freight volumes indicate a potential improvement of the near-term outlook
Statistics Brief |
February 2014

Tackling Systematic Cost Overruns in Infrastructure Projects
Policy Brief |
February 2014



 
Transport Ireland: Focusing Future Investment

Dublin, Ireland
25 March 2015
ITF Secretary-General José Viegas will be a panel participant
 
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