Transport Outlook
 
ITF Transport Outlook 2015  ITF Transport Outlook 2015

The ITF Transport Outlook examines the development of global transport volumes and related CO2 emissions and health impacts through to 2050. It examines factors that can affect supply and demand for transport services and focuses on scenarios illustrating potential upper and lower pathways, discussing their relevance to policy making.

This edition presents an overview of long-run scenarios for the development of global passenger and freight transport volumes, with emphasis on changes in global trade flows and the consequences of rapid urbanisation. It focuses on the characteristics of mobility development in developing countries, from Latin America to Chinese and Indian cities, highlighting the importance of urban mobility policies for the achievement of national and global sustainability goals.

Chapter 1. Near-term outlook for economy, trade and transport
Chapter 2. Surface transport demand in the long-run
Chapter 3. International freight and CO2 emissions to 2050
Chapter 4. Urban passenger transport scenarios for Latin America, China and India

172 pages; OECD, Paris, January 2015
€40 ;  $56 ;  £36 ;  ¥5200 ; MXN720
ISBN 978-92-821-0392-0

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Executive Summary     Other languages  Perspectives des transports FIT 2015 - résumé   ITF Transportausblick 2015 - Zusammenfassung in Deutsch   Perspectivas del transporte 2015 ITF - Resumen en español   Prospettive dei trasporti del FIT (Forum Internazionale dei   ITF 輸送アウトルック2015 - 日本語要約 

Transport Outlook 2013: Funding Transport  ITF Transport Outlook 2013: Funding Transport

The ITF Transport Outlook brings together scenario analysis for the long term with statistics on recent trends in transport. It identifies the drivers of past and possible future trends and discusses their relevance to policy making. Factors that could drive supply and demand for transport services to higher or lower bounds are identified and their potential impact explored.

This edition presents an overview of long-run scenarios for the development of global transport volumes through 2050. The analysis highlights the impact of alternative scenarios for economic growth on passenger and freight flows and the consequences of rapid urbanisation outside the OECD on overall transport volumes and CO2 emissions. It includes a Latin American urban transport case study that explores specific characteristics of urban development and their long-term effects in urban mobility, modal shares and related CO2 emissions in the developing world.

150 pages; OECD, Paris, December 2013
€30 ;  $42 ;  £27 ;  ¥3900 ; MXN540
ISBN 978-92-821-0392-0

Browse a free copy online                 Other languages: Perspectives des transports FIT 2013  : Financer les transports      
Go to full publication at the OECD bookshop      Other languages: Perspectives des transports FIT 2013  ; Financer les transports

Go to the Presentation Video            Other languages:  ITF Transport Outlook 2013.  Presentation Video. Spanish version 
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Transport Outlook 2012: Seamless Transport for Greener Growth

The mobility projections in this Transport Outlook indicate that global passenger transport volumes in 2050 could be up to 2.5 times as large as in 2010, and freight volumes could grow by a factor of four. Emissions of CO2 grow more slowly because of increasing energy efficiency, but may nevertheless more than double.

The projected evolution of mobility depends on income and population growth, and on urbanization. The relation between framework conditions and mobility is uncertain and not immutable and the Transport Outlook examines a number of plausible policy scenarios including the potential effects of prices and mobility policies that are less car-oriented in urban settings. Low car ownership with increased two-wheeler use and somewhat lower overall mobility results in much lower emissions of CO2.

Mobility policies can slow down CO2 emission growth but cannot by themselves stop it; energy technology is the key to actually reducing the transport sector’s global carbon footprint.

61 pages; ITF, Paris, May 2012

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Other languages: Perspectives des transportd 2011

   
   
   
   
Transport Outlook 2011: Meeting the Needs of 9 Billion People

The world’s population will reach 9 billion by 2050. Meeting their transport demands will be challenging. As both population and incomes rise, global passenger mobility and global freight transport volumes may triple by 2050. The International Transport Forum’s 2011 Outlook examines these trends, exploring the factors that may drive demand even higher and the limits imposed by infrastructure capacity, fuel prices and policies to accommodate or limit potentially explosive growth of car use in rapidly developing countries

The Outlook traces scenarios for emissions of CO2 from transport and the impact of policies to improve the fuel economy of conventional vehicles and promote the use of electric cars, including implications for fuel tax revenues. Trends in passenger car traffic are given particular attention, examining evidence for saturation of demand in high income countries.

The report also focuses on future directions for trade, as suggested by trends in the current economic recovery.

44 pages; ITF, Paris, May 2011

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Transport Outlook 2010: The Potential for Innovation

Growing population, increasing urbanisation and higher incomes will boost demand for transport and put great pressure on transport systems around the globe. This is one of the key findings of Transport Outlook 2010

According to research by the ITF/OECD’s Joint Transport Research Centre, the current crisis has had a relatively greater impact on trade and transport than previous economic downturns. This is reflected in very large volume and price effects, especially in freight transport. For the management of future greenhouse gas emissions from transport, the analysis strongly suggests that technologies to improve fuel economy and ultimately transform the energy basis of transport are the key.

28 pages; ITF, Paris, May 2010

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Other languages:   Perspectives des transports 2010