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Ex-post assessments of transport investments and policy interventions: Prerequisites and methodological challenges

Paris, 15-16 September 2014

Summary and Conclusions

Ex-post Assessment of Transport Investments and Policy Interventions: Prerequisites for ex-post assessments and methodological challenges: Roundtable Summary and Conclusions
Tom WORSLEY, Institute for Transport Studies, University of Leeds, UK
Discussion Paper No 2014-19, January 2015
Go to Discussion Paper      Synthèse et Conclusions de la Table Ronde : L’évaluation ex-post des investissements et interventions publiques dans les transports : Conditions préalables des évaluations ex-post et difficultés méthodologiques

Chair's video summary and presentations:

Ex-post assessment is a potentially important tool for improving transport policy and improving ex-ante investment appraisal. It is employed by audit offices in reviewing the value and efficiency of public investments and it is required in some jurisdictions as part of a cyclical process of project appraisal. The usual form of ex-post assessment is to repeat the modelling exercise used in ex-ante cost-benefit assessment, substituting outcomes for projected data. Broader assessments of the impact of a project might also be employed, particularly to address wider economic effects, including statistical techniques to identify project impact.

The roundtable reviewed the use of ex-post of assessment in the transport sector to date and examined the data and methodological requirements it imposes. It examined the range of modelling and statistical tools that can be employed. And it aimed to establish whether in practice ex-post evaluation has yielded improvement in the performance of ex-ante assessment.

Papers and Presentations

TPICS, TIGER and US Experience - A Focus on Case-based Ex Post Economic Impact Assessment
Stephen Fitzroy, Economic Development Research Group, USA
Discussion Paper 2014-11, November 2014
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Permanent Observatories as Tools for Ex-Post Assessment: the French Case Study
Alain Bonnafous, Laboratoire d'Economie des Transports, France
 Discussion Paper No 2014-10, December 2014
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The National Audit Office’s Value-for-Money Assessment of Transport Investments
Geraldine BARKER, Grace BEARDSLEY and Annie PARSONS, The National Audit Office, London, United Kingdom
Discussion Paper 2014-12, August 2014
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Causal Inference for Ex-Post Evaluation of Transport Interventions
Dan Graham, Imperial College of London, UK
Discussion Paper 2014-13, October 2014
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