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December 2013

Policy Decisions are Key Determinant for more Sustainable Transport

The volume of global transport could double or even quadruple by 2050, according to a new study released this week by the ITF. GDP growth, freight intensity of economic activity and demographic change are important drivers of this growth. But key determinants for the level of future increases are policy choices, according to the ITF Transport Outlook: a report containing long-run scenarios for global transport activity and related CO2 emissions.

China and India drive transport volume growth, with traffic increases to between 4 and 9 times the present level. Across non-OECD countries, surface passenger transport volumes could be four or five times higher in 2050 than today. For the industrialised OECD area, surface passenger travel (measured in vehicle-kilometres) is projected to grow by 50-60%.

For surface freight volumes - i.e. goods transported by road and rail - ITF projections put growth at up to 430% in non-OECD emerging economies and up to 125% for the OECD area. With low GDP growth and a decoupling of economic growth and freight intensity, the growth figures there could be 100% and 40% respectively at the lower end.

Strong increases in transport volumes mean strong growth of emissions from transport. The baseline projection sees global CO2 emissions from surface transport grow by 80% by 2050. At the top and bottom end, the increase could be as high as 170% or as low as 30%. The outcome will depend not least on choosing the best long-term strategies to support growth and protect the environment. Policy choices are particularly important in the cities of emerging regions, as exploding urbanisation shapes global transport trends.

Go to the publications page including video presentations



ITF Further Strengthens Relations with Mexico
Secretary-General José Viegas discussed global transport trends and policy issues with Mexican Secretary of Communications and Transport Gerardo Ruiz Esparza and Undersecretary Carlos Almada during a top-level mission aimed at further developing ties with the ITF member country on 19-20 November 2013.

The strong interest from Mexico in ITF's research work was highlighted during meetings at the transport ministry with the Director General of Rail and Multimodal Transport, Pablo Suárez, Director General of Federal Road Transport, Federico Domínguez, Director General of Civil Aviation, Alejandro Argudín, Director General of Engagement with Civil Society Organisations, Adrián del Maz.

Road safety was at the centre of a meeting with José San Martin, Director General of the Mexican Institute of Transport (IMT), a ministry research agency. Mr Viegas also presented ITF research to the Mexican Transport Commission at Mexico's parliament, the National Congress.
(pictured l-r: Fernando Maldonado Hernández, Secretary of the Transport Commission, Juan Carlos Muñoz Márquez, President of the Transport Commission, and José Viegas, ITF Secretary-General)


First ITF Roundtable in India to Focus on High-Speed Rail
A Roundtable on "The Economics of Investment in High-Speed Rail" in New Delhi on 18-19 December will deliberate the conditions under which investment in high-speed rail delivers positive economic returns. Experts will examine the key factors that drive the costs of high-speed rail investment and review the economic benefits. Papers will review experience in a range of countries that have developed large high-speed rail networks. Experts on the economics of smaller scale high-speed rail systems will also attend the discussions. ITF and international experts will join Montek Singh Ahluwalia, Deputy Chairman of the Planning Commission of the Government of India, and Mallikarjun Kharge, Minister of Railways.
(Photo: Arnaud Lizeray / Flickr cc)
Go to more information on the Roundtable


New Working Group to Assess Sustainable Transport Policies
The assessment of policies for long-term transition to sustainable transport will be studied by international experts participating in ITF's latest Working Group. The group will focus on the effectiveness of government strategies used to mitigate transport emissions and other environmental effects, particularly from road vehicles. The group will specifically aim to identify the limitations of cost benefit analysis for assessing policies to mitigate climate change and examine additional tools. Specific cases of policy initiatives and applied policy analysis will be used to learn from countries' experience. The Working Group consists of 12 members from 10 ITF member countries (Canada, Denmark, France, Germany, Japan, Netherlands, New Zealand, Russia, Sweden, USA) and is chaired by France. For the kick-off meeting in Paris on 12-13 December (pictured), 16 invited experts from research institutions as well as the International Monetary Fund, the OECD's Environment Directorate and Centre for Tax Policy provided additional input.

Go to more information on the working group

Go to ITF work on environment


Mobilising Transport Investment for Green Growth
How to mobilise investment for more sustainable transport solutions was debated by experts at a panel during the OECD 2013 Green Growth and Sustainable Development Forum, co-organised with ITF on 5-6 December. The forum explored solutions on how governments can improve their investment policy frameworks to reduce risk and attract long-term private financing in support of green growth.
(Photo: VTrans / Flickr cc)
Go to ITF work on environment

ITF Provides Input on Urban Transport Policy for Mayors and Ministers
Improving the co-operation between national governments and cities to foster growth and well-being with respect to the critical urban transport dimension was at the heart of input from ITF Secretary-General José Viegas at the Fifth OECD Roundtable of Mayors and Ministers meeting in Marseille, France on 4-5 December. ITF has produced a wide range of studies on urban transport issues such as congestion reduction, active mobility or regulation of public transport and has made the issue of urban mobility a recurrent theme at its Annual Summit of ministers of transport.
(Photo: Jan Jacob Trip / Flickr cc)
Go to more information about ITF's work on urban transport


Summit Registration Opens 15 January
Registrations for ITF's Annual Summit on 21-23 May 2014 in Leipzig, Germany will open on 15 January 2014. The theme is Transport for a Changing World: Understanding Trends - Shaping Responses. The preliminary programme of the Summit is already available online. Early bird discounts on registration will be available until 16 April.

Go to the preliminary Summit programme

Applications for Summit Side Events are now open. These provide important opportunities for transport stakeholders to present recent work, foster debate on key issues, or conduct technical and policy discussions.

Go to more information on Summit Side Events

Details on Summit sponsorship opportunities and participation in the exhibition are now available online. Early bird rates for exhibitors are available until 31 January 2014.

Go to more information on opportunities



Apply now for the ITF Awards
Three Awards will be presented at the 2014 Summit in the presence of ministers of transport from around the world:
Transport Achievement Award for innovations between two and five years old;

Promising Transport Innovation Award for innovations that have received approval or are less than 2 years old;

Young Researcher of the Year Award for researchers under 35 years of age.

Deadline for applications for all three is
7 February 2014

Go to more information on the ITF Awards



Forum Activities
ITF economist Jari Kauppila presented on defining strategies for supply chain sustainability at the European Freight Leaders (F&L) Forum in Rotterdam, Netherlands on 21-22 November.

Recent ITF research findings on global transport trends and future business opportunities were presented by Mr Kauppila during a seminar at the Czech Ministry for Foreign Affairs in Prague, Czech Republic on 27 November.

Statistician Mario Barreto represented ITF at the Eurostat annual statistical meeting in Luxembourg for the improvement of the quality of transport statistics on 4-5 December.

Mr Kauppila presented on data availability for integrated assessment models (IAM) during the seminar on IAM hosted by the International Institute for Applied Analysis (IIASA) in Laxenburg, Austria on 19 November.

Head of Research Stephen Perkins represented ITF at a panel discussion on "The Automobile: Decline or Renaissance?" with Philippe Varin (CEO of PSA Peugeot Citroën), Gilles Alix (Director-General of the Bolloré Group and President of Autolib), Jacques Aschenbroich (Director-General of Valeo) and others, in Saint-Germain-en-Laye, France on 3 December.

ITF will participate in numerous meetings and activities in the upcoming Transportation Research Board conference in Washington, D.C. during the second week of January, with the presence of Secretary-General José Viegas, Head of Policy Mary Crass, Head of Research Stephen Perkins, Policy Analyst Yuichiro Kawashima and Jari Kauppila, Manager of the Statistics Unit.

Season's greetings and best wishes for a happy new year to all our colleagues and friends from the staff at the ITF Secretariat!

ITF Transport Outlook 2013
Research Report | December 2013

Measuring and Valuing Convenience. A Review of Global Practices and Challenges from the Public Transport Sector

Discussion Paper | December 2013

Carbon Emissions and Cost Benefit Analyses

Discussion Paper | December 2013

Factoring sustainable development into project appraisal: a French view
Discussion Paper | December 2013

93rd Annual Transportation Research Board Conference
Transportation Research Board
12-16 January 2014
Washington D.C., USA

Greening Intermodality
6 February 2014
Brussels, Belgium

mobil.TUM 2014
International Scientific Conference on Mobility and Transport
19-20 May 2014
Munich, Germany
Call for papers now open (deadline 7 January 2014)

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